Monday, July 07, 2008
Microsoft after Gates
I have been a fan of Bill Gates since the day I grasped the beauty of the OS strategy they deployed in the PC world. Nothing to do with technical abilities, just spectacular strategy. My admiration grew when I saw the way they defended themselves from the Netscape assault, having missed the Internet completely (ok, I know, it is easier when you have a monopoly... but it is still remarkable).Lately, I have to say I am not thrilled with Microsoft or its strategy. My feeling is that Gates has not been there enough. Now that it is official he is gone, I am seeing a dark future for MSFT. The positive note is that Bill will focus on his foundation, so I see a bright future for the world. No Microsoft dominance and better health in Africa (my brother is a Bill Gates fan, and he worked in Africa for years so he knows his stuff, whatever RMS says). I can take that.
In particular, I do not see a chance for Microsoft to be relevant in mobile OSS. Now that Symbian is gone open source, we have three open source operating systems (Symbian, Android and LIMO derivatives) that are going to dominate the market. On top of it, you have the iPhone. That's 90% of the market easily in a few years. Windows Mobile will be left with less than 10%. Even if WM becomes free (they have to make that move and it will be so painful for them), I do not think they will win market share. Their motto will be "think different" :-))
Unless they do the unthinkable: make Windows Mobile open source. That would be an incredible move, one that I think they cannot do with Ballmer at the helm.
Whatever they do, Open Source is going to dominate Mobile (man, it feels good even just to write it :-)
What are the things that Microsoft could do in the after Gates era? This article gives five tips to the big monopolist:
- A greater acceptance of open source
- A new approach to Windows releases
- Secure new revenue by buying big
- Taking the web seriously through interoperability
- More Microsoft than Gates
Posted by Fabrizio at 09:57
10 Comments:
Dear Mr Capobianco,
my name is Francesca Marinetto and I work for Piemonte Agency for Investments, Export and Tourism based in Torino (www.centroestero.org). We are the regional agency dedicated to foster Piemonte's internazionalization through inward and outward investment promotion. We read about you and Funambol in an article edited by Il Sole 24 Ore and we would be pleased to get in touch with you and know more about your company and your interest to expand in Italy.
You can contact us by email: francesca.marinetto@centroestero.org.
Looking forward to receive your reply.
Best regards,
Francesca Marinetto
Comment Posted at 05:38
Mordy said...
Fabrizio, I agree Windows Mobile may need to change to stay competitive, but I don't think its because of OpenMoko and Linux Mobile... those two aren't doing as well as they had hoped, mostly because the community behind them aren't pushing hard enough to make it mainstream.
Windows Mobile has to its credit that people are familiar with Microsoft's product, and has a large pre-existing development community.
While we're at it, its not so unheard of that Microsoft would go open source- there's been rumors about this for years, and a number of their projects have officially gone open.
I actually just posted a response to this on MoPocket.com,
http://www.mopocket.com/2008/07/microsoft-as-a-mobile-platform-in-the-future.php
Comment Posted at 10:23
Surur said...
Exactly how does open source guarantee relevance and success. Hasn't helped Linux much has it, and the iPhone, your success story example, is possibly the most closed mobile OS in existence.
Your article is just more FUD - WM is selling very well. Yes, its true. When WM STOPS selling very well it will be time for your FUD article.
Why dont you go preach open source to Apple instead.
Comment Posted at 11:57
Fabrizio said...
Hi Surur,
glad to see someone still positive about Microsoft.
How well can you describe how WM is doing? If I look at wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone) I see that Symbian has 65% of the market, plus 5% of various Linux OS. WM has 12%. And we are talking about the SMARTPHONE market, if you look at the mobile phone market, you can cut that number by an enormous percent, getting to the few percent. Most likely, less than what Apple has in the PC world...
And I agree, same goes for Apple. They are not open. Not even close to be open source. But we were talking MSFT here ;-) And they control the HW, which is key in mobile, so they will have a meaningful market share in my opinion.
fabrizio
Comment Posted at 17:34
Surur said...
As Apple users will know, marketshare does not tell the whole story. With 35 million active users, 20 million sold in the 12 months past, and at least 30 million projected for the next 12 months, there is certainly enough volume to sustain the platform. While Symbian for example has huge marketshare, this has not translated into a meaningful presence in the web 2.0 world, and making the OS open source will not change that.
Windows Mobile is a dynamic, growing OS, it has huge developer support, it integrates well with the de facto desktop OS, and has a global presence. While the blogosphere hates Windows Mobile (and love the iPhone) it does not negate the real successes of the OS.
The fact is, if you want to do something amazing on a mobile platform, you go Windows Mobile first, because its Open. Its not open source, but its open. Ask Tomtom if they have any SDK forbidding them to do turn by turn directions on Windows Mobile? Ask skype if they have any SDK forbidding VOIP over 3G. Ask Sling of they have any rules forbidding bandwidth hogs.
Windows Mobile is accessible for developers, and is becoming increasingly accessible for users.
Did you know HTC sold more HTC Touch's in Europe than Apple sold iPhones? And HTC shipped more smartphones than Sony Ericsson?
A site like xda-developers.com shows Windows Mobile has a very vibrant community surrounding it. Its Alexa traffic rank is higher than macrumors.com, appleinsider.com, tuaw.com and macnn.com. The forum has accumulated 1.7 million posts in less than 6 years and has 850 000 registered members.
http://tinyurl.com/alexaxdarank
WM does not only not have any feet in the grave, they are actually alive, kicking and screaming. If you are so intent on writing an obituary for a mobile OS, go look at PalmOs.
BTW, when is RIM making Blackberry open source?
Comment Posted at 18:21
OpenSource will dominate not only mobile but most ICT. For a while we have been heading back to the times where you pay for the service, not for the tool.
Until Android and LiMo are something more than vaporware/promises, we actually seem to have only Symbian as the OpenSource OS here. To be honest, it takes some time for Symbian to open up itself. Until then, for many *real* OpenSource mobiles OSes do we have?
None, nada.
With *real*, I mean 10+ million shipped units and global appearance.
***
I like to compare MS to the old telecoms giants. Yesterday, legacy. They all shall be with us for a long time in the good and the bad. What is important for OpenSource, is that they are not the future.
A kind of proof of MS being lost is the fact they have missed internet. Twice!
First it was mid-90s during Netscape saga. Second was this "Web 2.0" era going on right now.
If Bill Gates was such a visionary, why did he not see it coming? Twice.
Lets hope MSFT stock does not drop too much during coming years, or Bill does not have enough to give through the foundation.
Comment Posted at 18:30
Surur said...
Guess which platform the Mozilla foundation is developing their mobile firefox for. I'll give you a clue - it does not start with an A, and does not start with an i.
http://wmpoweruser.com/?p=139
http://wmpoweruser.com/?p=120
Comment Posted at 23:31
Gentiel Capobianco,
I aggree win genera with you about WM and MSFT in mobility.
However there is en important exception:
WSM is dominant today in vertical mobility applications like SFA FFA. Quite all the rough PDA like Symbol-Motorola or Intermec are under WM 5 or 6.
Do you see any change ?
I'm not sure.
Grazie e saluti.
Giorgio Griziotti
Mobility Solutions Manager at Capgemini
(I'm on linkedIn)
Comment Posted at 03:28
<b>Mordy G.</b> said...
ha, Fabrizio, looks like you struck a nerve with this topic!
You've got to be careful when predicting the doom of an OS that a large group of your readers continue to use!
Comment Posted at 08:05
Fabrizio said...
Hi Mordy,
I agree ;-) Can I predict the near death of Windows XP without being bashed? :-)
capo
